Jiejing Wang, Associate Professor, School of Public Administration and Policy, RUC

Authors:

Jiejing Wang; Yanji Zhang

Sources:

Population, Space and Place

Population, Space and Place aims to be the leading English-language research journal in the field of population geography and in geographical population studies. It intends to:

· Inform population researchers of the best theoretical and empirical research on topics related to population, space and place

· Promote and further enhance the international standing of population research through the exchange of views on what constitutes best research practice

· Facilitate debate on issues of policy relevance and encourages the widest possible discussion and dissemination of the applications of research on populations

· Review and evaluate the significance of recent research findings and provide an international platform where researchers can discuss the future course of population research

· Provide a forum for population researchers to assess and apply philosophical and methodological developments in the social and behavioral sciences

· Encourage quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods approaches to population research

Article: Wang, J., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Destination-to-origin differences and settlement intentions of Chinese internal migrants: A birth cohort analysis. Population, Space and Place, e2544. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2544

Abstract:

Research on Chinese internal migrants has gradually shifted from a focus on the rapid expansion of this population to its relationship with the restructuring of spatial distribution in cities. The settlement intentions of migrants are key to how China's urbanization and urban system will evolve. Yet, although there is a considerable body of research on this subject, the determinants of migrants' settlement intentions remain debatable. In this paper, in light of the dramatic economic and social transition undergone by China in the past 70 years, we demonstrate the importance of considering the cohort perspective in relation to Chinese migrants' settlement intentions. Specifically, we examine the effects of differences between migrants' origins and their destinations on settlement intentions in relation to year of birth. Our results show that destination-to-origin differences in terms of population size, administrative level, economic condition and public services are positively associated with migrants' settlement intentions, whereas geographic distance and cultural distance between origin and destination are negatively related to the intention to settle in destination cities. Further, these effects vary significantly across birth cohorts. Our findings demonstrate the importance of going beyond the standard dichotomy between old generation and new generation that is often used in the analysis of migration trends. To achieve more inclusive urbanisation in the future, targeted policies that take into account inter-city and inter-cohort variations are critical to addressing obstacles to the settlement of migrants in destination cities.

Key Words: 

China, Cohort, Destination-to-origin Difference, Internal Migrants, Settlement Intention

Highlights

·An overall declining trend was observed in settlement intention, whereby compared with the later cohorts the earlier cohorts are more intent on settling in the destination. However, there is a secondary settlement intention peak for the 1981–1985 cohort. Of all the cohorts, the post-1990 migrants, the most recent cohorts in the sample, are least intent on settling in the destination.

·Destination-to-origin differences in population size, urban administrative level, economic condition and public services are positively associated with migrants' settlement intentions, whereas the opposite holds for geographic distance and cultural distance from the place of origin.

·Strong cohort variations were found in the effects of destination-to-origin differences on the settlement intentions of migrants, net of age effects.

·A divergence pattern was found in the effects of destination-to-origin differences on the settlement intentions of the new generation. This finding clearly indicates that intra-generation variations cannot be neglected because of the transformation of Chinese society.

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Edit: Gaosheng Ye