Professor Liu Yuanchun Gave a Lecture for MPA students
On the morning of November 27, 2016, Professor Liu Yuanchun from the School of Economics, Yangtze River Scholar,gave a lecture on “An Analysis on 2016-2017 China’s Macro Economy”for the 11th MPA Forum in Room 0201, Mingfa Building. Professor Liu is executive president of National Academy of Development and Strategy and director of Academic Affairs Office in RUC. This lecture was hosted by Mr. Xu Guangjian, executive deputy dean of the School of Public Administration and Policy, and director of MPA Education Center.
During the three-hour lecture, Professor Liu analyzed the 2016-2017 macro economy from five perspectives and made a prediction on its trend. He concluded that China’s macro economy was gradually bottoming out and wouldbegin to rise in risk. Liu elaborated six core issues China’s macro economy was facing and he thought that the economyhad reached the bottom and would run smoothly in the short run.While in 2017, Liu said, due to the sluggish recovery of global economy, the trade contraction would continue, therefore the external demand could hardly be increased. Although the infrastructure investment would possibly remain high increase,the real estate investment would exert a prominent influence on the economic downturn.Traditional industries with excess capacity would be in an adjusting process, while the growth of the emerging industries would not be strong enough to make up the loss of the traditional industries. In the meantime, a larger ratio of the service industry would bring about a decelerated growth of labor productivity. Debt-investment driven pattern would remain the way to grow steadily,which would lead to a continued increase in total debt ratio. In addition, Professor Liu made an analysis on the dilemmas China’s macro economy would face in 2017. At last, Liu suggested that China should build a macro-control system with double bottom line of steady growth and low risk to expand the equity capital and eliminate the debt crisis. China should advance“supply-side structural reform”, and deepen the agrarian reform and the reform of the state property management system, which could fundamentally prevent debt crisis and boost a steady and continued economic growth.
Professor Liuput forward practical and well-targeted policy proposals in this clearly structured lecture. His profound knowledge and clear standpoint brought the students great benefits.